The Rebound: From Contraction to Growth
After a 2025 marked by contraction, Costa Rica’s agricultural sector began 2026 on a positive note, leaving its losses behind. According to the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), agricultural activity grew 2.8% year-on-year in January 2026, in contrast with the nearly 4.4% decline recorded in the same month the previous year. This result comes in a context where national output, as measured by the Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE), rose 4.8% in January, accumulating more than three consecutive years of growth rates above 4%.
What Is Driving Agricultural Growth
According to the BCCR’s report on the January 2026 IMAE, the advance of the agricultural sector is explained primarily by an increase in the production of short-cycle crops, such as vegetables, roots and tubers. These products benefited from a combination of favourable weather conditions, with temperatures and rainfall that allowed for better yields compared to the previous year. This was compounded by greater dynamism in certain export-oriented activities, particularly in exports of pineapple, watermelon and melon, which took advantage of improved production and demand conditions.
Crops Still Under Pressure
The Central Bank itself notes that, despite the sector’s overall growth, not all crops are faring equally. In its January 2026 report, the institution warns that banana and coffee production was affected by pests and fungi associated with adverse weather conditions during the second half of 2025. These factors limited the performance of both products, which continue to face challenges in phytosanitary management and adaptation to extreme weather events.
From a Difficult 2025 to a 2026 Recovery
The improvement observed at the start of 2026 contrasts with the “marked contraction” the Central Bank had documented for agricultural output in 2025. In its Monetary Policy Report of April that year, the institution reported a decline of nearly 4.3% in agricultural activity during the first quarter of 2025 and projected an annual sectoral decline of around -2.3%. Even then, the BCCR estimated that recovery would arrive in 2026, supported by improved exportable production of pineapple and banana and by continued growth in livestock activity. The January 2026 result largely confirms the recovery path anticipated by the central bank.
Climate Conditions and Risk Management
The recent performance of Costa Rica’s agricultural sector is closely linked to climate variability and the ability of producers to adapt. The combination of temperatures and rainfall that favoured short-cycle crops in January 2026 stands in contrast to the episodes of excess moisture and disease that affected banana and coffee in the second half of 2025. Documents from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAG) and the Executive Secretariat for Agricultural Sector Planning (SEPSA) highlight the importance of strengthening research systems, technical assistance and climate risk management to protect the sector’s productivity and sustainability.
A Key Sector in the National Economy
Although manufacturing and services account for much of the economy’s recent momentum, the agricultural sector remains a cornerstone in rural employment generation, export earnings and productive linkages. The 2.8% rebound in January 2026 also represents the fifth consecutive month of positive variations in agricultural output, suggesting a more sustained recovery trend rather than a one-off bounce. This recovery is taking place alongside efforts to modernise institutions and invest in competitiveness, productivity and sustainability, as outlined in the Agricultural Sector Plan 2023–2027.
Remaining Challenges and Outlook
Despite the favourable figures, the sector faces structural challenges such as exposure to climate change, the need to improve rural infrastructure, cost pressures and the adoption of technology on small and medium-sized farms. Joint plans between the Government of Costa Rica and organisations such as the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the World Bank envisage investments of more than 500 million dollars between 2023 and 2027, aimed at modernising institutions, boosting competitiveness and promoting more sustainable agricultural production. The progress of these programmes and weather conditions over the coming months will be decisive in consolidating the growth observed at the start of 2026.
