An analysis by the School of Management Sciences of the State Distance University (UNED) foresees a scenario of stability for the Costa Rican economy during the first quarter of 2026. The study bases this projection on the behavior of the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM) and the high liquidity of foreign currency in the financial system.

According to the School’s director, Federico Quesada Chaves, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) has maintained a neutral stance that favors predictability for households and businesses. It is estimated that the exchange rate will show a slight tendency toward appreciation of the colón against the dollar due to the dynamism of the export sector and the availability of foreign currency.

The analysis highlights that advanced manufacturing and global value chains will continue to drive economic activity in the first half of the year. On the other hand, inflation would remain contained at levels close to 1%, although external risks related to geopolitical conflicts and fuel prices persist.

Despite the stable outlook, UNED identifies factors of caution

Consumption: A moderation in household spending is expected due to the cost of credit cards.

Investment: The electoral environment and the change of government could slow long-term investment projects.

Financial advice: It is recommended to prioritize savings in colones, avoid debt in dollars for those who do not generate income in that currency, and use the formal financial system.

The study concludes that, although the beginning of the year will be stable, the second half of 2026 could experience variations depending on the outcome of the political cycle and conditions in the international environment.