Costa Rica’s economy has proven stronger than expected this year. This past November 4, 2025, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR), during the presentation of its October Monetary Policy Report (IPM), announced an upward revision of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for the close of 2025.
This adjustment, adding to the optimism generated by the recent S&P Global upgrade, reflects an economic performance that has consistently surpassed expectations.
The New Outlook: The Adjustment Figures
The BCCR has updated its macroeconomic estimates, showing a more favorable outlook for the current year:
- 2025 Growth Forecast: It has been significantly adjusted upward, moving from 3.8% (as estimated in the July IPM) to 4.2%.
- 2026 Growth Forecast: For the upcoming year, the Bank maintains its forecast at 3.5%, anticipating a slight moderation in the growth rate, which remains a robust figure.
Why is the Economy Growing More?
This positive revision is not due to a single factor, but rather a combination of elements that have sustained the dynamism of national production:
- External Demand (The Main Driver): Growth continues to be strongly driven by the robust performance of exports, especially those from the special economic zones (such as medical devices and technology services).
- Surprising Domestic Demand: Contrary to previous projections, the BCCR now sees greater dynamism in household consumption. Family spending has been stronger than expected, contributing positively to the GDP.
- Controlled Inflation: The low-inflation environment, which has actually remained below the Bank’s target range (in negative territory), has provided stability and supported the recovery of purchasing power, thereby boosting consumption.
Impact and Conclusion
The upward adjustment by the BCCR is fundamental news that confirms the resilience of the Costa Rican economy. Despite a complex international context and global interest rates that remain high, national production is showing a remarkable ability to grow beyond initial estimates.
This strength, anchored by both the external sector and a strengthening domestic demand, provides an optimistic outlook for the close of the fiscal year and consolidates the country’s perception of economic stability.
